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Maniema Union vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Maniema Union
Maniema Union
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
5/4/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 3Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Maniema Union36%
×Draw30%
TP Mazembe34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maniema Union
1.09
TP Mazembe
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 97 away

creates per match

Maniema Union
1.65
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Maniema Union
0.50
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw
66%
Maniema Union or TP Mazembe
70%
Draw or TP Mazembe
64%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+
14%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals
66%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
30%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
10%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
65%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
29%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)
51%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.65 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.09

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Maniema Union defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Maniema Union scores more
36%
level
30%
TP Mazembe scores more
34%

Maniema Union at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Maniema Union 0–1 TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat Maniema Union 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.