TP Mazembe 1–0 Mamelodi Sundowns: Result & Stats

TP Mazembe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mamelodi Sundowns

12/2/2023

CAF Champions League · Group A - 2Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TP Mazembe42%

×Draw28%

Mamelodi Sundowns30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TP MazembeExpected goals in this matchMamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.06

TP Mazembe

1.30

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.06

TP Mazembe creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

1.75

creates per match

1.62

0.50

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

TP Mazembe

1.75

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.62

allows per match

TP Mazembe

0.50

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw

70%

TP Mazembe or Mamelodi Sundowns

72%

Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns

58%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+

19%

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals

73%

TP Mazembe 2+ goals

37%

TP Mazembe 3+ goals

14%

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

65%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

29%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)

58%

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 20 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 1.75 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.62 + TP Mazembe defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TP Mazembe scores more

42%

level

28%

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

30%

TP Mazembe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff