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Mamelodi Sundowns vs TP Mazembe — CAF Champions League 2019

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
3/16/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group B - 4Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns61%
×Draw26%
TP Mazembe13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.51
TP Mazembe
0.54

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 180% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 21 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
2.07
TP Mazembe
0.57

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.51
TP Mazembe
0.95

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
87%
Mamelodi Sundowns or TP Mazembe
74%
Draw or TP Mazembe
39%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
33%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
78%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
44%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
19%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
42%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
10%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
82%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.51 · 41 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 2.07 + TP Mazembe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.51

TP Mazembe attack 0.57 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
61%
level
26%
TP Mazembe scores more
13%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 TP Mazembe

Mamelodi Sundowns beat TP Mazembe 1-0 in CAF Champions League on March 16, 2021.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane/Pretoria.