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Township Rollers vs Matebele — League #412 2026

Township Rollers
Township Rollers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Matebele
Matebele
8/16/2025League #412League #412 · Round 1Botswana National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Township Rollers46%
×Draw28%
Matebele25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Township Rollers
1.31
Matebele
0.89

Township Rollers creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Township Rollers
0.83
Matebele
0.60

allows per match

Township Rollers
1.17
Matebele
1.80

finishing

Township Rollers+0.00on par
Matebele+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Township Rollers ↓

Matebele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Township Rollers or draw
75%
Township Rollers or Matebele
72%
Draw or Matebele
54%

Winning margin

Township Rollers wins by 2+
22%
Matebele wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Township Rollers 1+ goals
73%
Township Rollers 2+ goals
38%
Township Rollers 3+ goals
14%
Matebele 1+ goals
59%
Matebele 2+ goals
22%
Matebele 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Township Rollers (draw refunded)
65%
Matebele (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Township Rollers at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Matebele away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Township Rollers attack 0.83 + Matebele defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.31

Matebele attack 0.60 + Township Rollers defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Township Rollers scores more
46%
level
28%
Matebele scores more
25%

Township Rollers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Township Rollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #412: Township Rollers 2–0 Matebele

Township Rollers beat Matebele 2-0 in League #412 on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Botswana National Stadium in Gaborone.