Matebele 1–0 Township Rollers: Result & Stats

Matebele

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Township Rollers

5/12/2026

League #412 · Round 29Botswana National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Matebele42%

×Draw28%

Township Rollers30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MatebeleExpected goals in this matchTownship Rollers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Matebele

1.25

Township Rollers

1.00

Matebele creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

0.50

1.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Matebele

1.25

Township Rollers

0.50

allows per match

Matebele

1.50

Township Rollers

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Matebele+0.00on par

Township Rollers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matebele ↓

Township Rollers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Matebele or draw

70%

Matebele or Township Rollers

72%

Draw or Township Rollers

58%

Winning margin

Matebele wins by 2+

19%

Township Rollers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Matebele 1+ goals

71%

Matebele 2+ goals

36%

Matebele 3+ goals

13%

Township Rollers 1+ goals

63%

Township Rollers 2+ goals

26%

Township Rollers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Matebele (draw refunded)

59%

Township Rollers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matebele at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Township Rollers away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matebele attack 1.25 + Township Rollers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Township Rollers attack 0.50 + Matebele defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Matebele scores more

42%

level

28%

Township Rollers scores more

30%

Matebele at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Matebele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff