Touring 1–0 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Touring

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Sociedad III

10/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Campo de Fútbol Fandería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Touring35%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad III40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TouringExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.46

Touring

1.35

Real Sociedad III

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

1.18

creates per match

1.66

1.25

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Touring

1.18

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Touring

1.25

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Touring+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Touring ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Touring or draw

60%

Touring or Real Sociedad III

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

65%

Winning margin

Touring wins by 2+

16%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Touring 1+ goals

74%

Touring 2+ goals

39%

Touring 3+ goals

15%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

43%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Touring (draw refunded)

47%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Touring at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Touring attack 1.18 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Touring defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Touring scores more

35%

level

25%

Real Sociedad III scores more

40%

Real Sociedad III at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Touring 1–0 Real Sociedad III

Touring beat Real Sociedad III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Fandería in Errenteria.

Touring vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Touring 1–0 Real Sociedad III