Toulouse 0–1 Paris Saint Germain: Result & Stats

Toulouse

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Paris Saint Germain

Fabián Ruiz 52'

2/15/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 22Stadium de Toulouse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Toulouse31%

×Draw25%

Paris Saint Germain45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToulouseExpected goals in this matchParis Saint Germain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.59

Toulouse

1.27

Paris Saint Germain

1.59

Paris Saint Germain creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

1.47

creates per match

2.08

1.10

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Toulouse

1.47

Paris Saint Germain

2.08

allows per match

Toulouse

1.10

Paris Saint Germain

1.06

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Toulouse-0.05on par

Paris Saint Germain-0.08on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulouse ↓

Paris Saint Germain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Toulouse or draw

55%

Toulouse or Paris Saint Germain

75%

Draw or Paris Saint Germain

69%

Winning margin

Toulouse wins by 2+

13%

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Toulouse 1+ goals

72%

Toulouse 2+ goals

36%

Toulouse 3+ goals

14%

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

80%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

47%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Toulouse (draw refunded)

41%

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulouse at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 26 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.06 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulouse attack 1.47 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.08 + Toulouse defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Toulouse scores more

31%

level

25%

Paris Saint Germain scores more

45%

Paris Saint Germain at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Fabián Ruiz

Paris Saint Germain · M

8.5

Match Events

39'

43'

52'

56'

63'

O. Dembélé← Lee Kang-In

63'

Marquinhos← W. Pacho

63'

Vitinha← Fabián Ruiz

70'

M. McKenzie← V. Sierro

70'

R. Messali← F. Magri

74'

Gonçalo Ramos← B. Barcola

79'

N. Edjouma← S. Babicka

79'

D. Sidibé← Ü. Akdağ

90+1'

João Neves← S. Mayulu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ToulouseParis

Overview

23%Possession77%

14Total Shots20

0.88Expected Goals (xG)2.44

5Corners2

9Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots20

4On Target6

6Off Target9

4Blocked5

10Inside Box9

4Outside Box11

Passing

23%Possession77%

239Total Passes814

169Accurate Passes750

71%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

0.49Goals Prevented0.49

Discipline

9Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain beat Toulouse 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: Fabián Ruiz (52').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (77%) and registered 20 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadium de Toulouse in Toulouse.

Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain