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Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse — Ligue 1 2026

Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Toulouse
Toulouse
K. Mbappé 8'
F. Magri 90+5'
Y. Gboho 68'
T. Dallinga 13'
5/12/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 33Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Paris Saint Germain57%
×Draw22%
Toulouse21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain
1.90
Toulouse
1.06

Paris Saint Germain creates 79% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain
2.39
Toulouse
1.27

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain
0.86
Toulouse
1.40

finishing

Paris Saint Germain+0.07on par
Toulouse+0.23scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain ↓

Toulouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain or draw
79%
Paris Saint Germain or Toulouse
78%
Draw or Toulouse
43%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+
33%
Toulouse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals
85%
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
56%
Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals
29%
Toulouse 1+ goals
65%
Toulouse 2+ goals
29%
Toulouse 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)
73%
Toulouse (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.86 · 26 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain attack 2.39 + Toulouse defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Toulouse attack 1.27 + Paris Saint Germain defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Paris Saint Germain scores more
57%
level
22%
Toulouse scores more
21%

Paris Saint Germain at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
T. DallingaToulouseToulouse · F
7.7

Match Events

8'
K. Mbappé↳ Arnau Tenas
10'
Kylian MbappéGoal confirmed
13'
T. Dallinga↳ M. Diarra
62'
O. Dembélé← Lee Kang-In
63'
S. Mayulu← B. Barcola
64'
A. Dønnum← Z. Aboukhlal
65'
W. Kamanzi← M. Desler
68'
Y. Gboho↳ G. Suazo
76'
A. Hakimi← N. Mukiele
77'
Gonçalo Ramos← Marco Asensio
79'
F. Magri← T. Dallinga
79'
C. Mawissa← G. Suazo
87'
S. Babicka← Y. Gboho
90+5'
F. Magri↳ W. Kamanzi

Possession

64%Paris

Shots

15Paris

Pass accuracy

52%Paris

Statistics

ParisToulouse
Overview
64%Possession36%
15Total Shots18
2.18Expected Goals (xG)1.56
4Corners6
12Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots18
3On Target5
8Off Target11
4Blocked2
11Inside Box12
4Outside Box6
Passing
64%Possession36%
653Total Passes354
577Accurate Passes289
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Offsides0

Ligue 1: Paris Saint Germain 1–3 Toulouse

Toulouse beat Paris Saint Germain 3-1 in Ligue 1 on May 12, 2024.

Goals: K. Mbappé (8'), T. Dallinga (13'), Y. Gboho (68'), F. Magri (90+5').

Paris Saint Germain controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at Parc des Princes in Paris.