Toulouse 1–1 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Toulouse

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lorient

T. Dallinga 72'

B. Dieng 90+1'

12/3/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 14Stadium de Toulouse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Toulouse50%

×Draw25%

Lorient24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToulouseExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.02

Toulouse

1.58

Lorient

1.02

Toulouse creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.49

creates per match

1.01

1.04

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Toulouse

1.49

Lorient

1.01

allows per match

Toulouse

1.04

Lorient

1.68

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Toulouse-0.01on par

Lorient-0.09on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulouse ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Toulouse or draw

76%

Toulouse or Lorient

75%

Draw or Lorient

50%

Winning margin

Toulouse wins by 2+

26%

Lorient wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Toulouse 1+ goals

79%

Toulouse 2+ goals

47%

Toulouse 3+ goals

21%

Lorient 1+ goals

64%

Lorient 2+ goals

27%

Lorient 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Toulouse (draw refunded)

67%

Lorient (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulouse at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulouse attack 1.49 + Lorient defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lorient attack 1.01 + Toulouse defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Toulouse scores more

50%

level

25%

Lorient scores more

24%

Toulouse at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Spierings

Toulouse · M

8.0

Match Events

1'

Aron Dønnum

9'

Tiemoué Bakayoko

31'

W. Kamanzi← M. Desler

33'

Montassar Talbi

55'

J. Ponceau← T. Bakayoko

62'

T. Dallinga← I. Cissoko

66'

B. Mendy← J. Makengo

66'

B. Dieng← S. Doucouré

71'

Julien Ponceau

72'

T. Dallinga↳ G. Suazo

79'

V. Le Goff← D. Yongwa

80'

C. Cásseres← N. Schmidt

80'

Y. Begraoui← A. Dønnum

80'

M. Diarra← G. Suazo

80'

T. Le Bris← E. Kroupi

83'

Vincent Sierro

83'

Benjamin Mendy

90+1'

B. Dieng↳ T. Le Bris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ToulouseLorient

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots11

1.02Expected Goals (xG)0.80

3Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots11

6On Target5

2Off Target4

3Blocked2

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

482Total Passes431

403Accurate Passes367

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Ligue 1: Toulouse 1–1 Lorient

Toulouse and Lorient drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 3, 2023.

Goals: T. Dallinga (72'), B. Dieng (90+1').

Toulouse controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadium de Toulouse in Toulouse.

Toulouse vs Lorient — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Toulouse 1–1 Lorient