Lorient 1–2 Toulouse: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lorient

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Toulouse

J. Ponceau 19'

I. Cissoko 83'

T. Dallinga 59'

4/28/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 31Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lorient42%

×Draw26%

Toulouse32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorientExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Lorient

1.42

Toulouse

1.21

Lorient creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

1.42

creates per match

1.26

1.17

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Lorient

1.42

Toulouse

1.26

allows per match

Lorient

1.17

Toulouse

1.41

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Lorient+0.19scores more

Toulouse+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lorient or draw

68%

Lorient or Toulouse

74%

Draw or Toulouse

58%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+

20%

Toulouse wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals

76%

Lorient 2+ goals

41%

Lorient 3+ goals

17%

Toulouse 1+ goals

70%

Toulouse 2+ goals

34%

Toulouse 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)

57%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.41 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 1.42 + Toulouse defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Toulouse attack 1.26 + Lorient defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lorient scores more

42%

level

26%

Toulouse scores more

32%

Lorient at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

N. Schmidt

Toulouse · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

31'

38'

46'

51'

59'

62'

C. Cásseres← S. Spierings

62'

S. Babicka← A. Dønnum

62'

M. Desler← K. Keben

72'

T. Bakayoko← I. Louza

72'

J. Laporte← S. Touré

79'

I. Cissoko← Z. Aboukhlal

81'

D. Yongwa← B. Mendy

82'

E. Kroupi← P. Katseris

83'

I. Cissoko↳ N. Schmidt

84'

A. Tosin← M. Bamba

87'

Vincent Sierro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LorientToulouse

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots14

1.47Expected Goals (xG)1.88

5Corners1

14Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots14

5On Target5

6Off Target7

4Blocked2

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

418Total Passes429

350Accurate Passes356

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1