Toulouse 1–0 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Toulouse

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chateauroux

K. Amian 52'

4/17/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 33Stadium de Toulouse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Toulouse65%

×Draw21%

Chateauroux14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToulouseExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.75

Toulouse

1.94

Chateauroux

0.75

Toulouse creates 159% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 50 away

2.54

creates per match

0.68

0.82

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Toulouse

2.54

Chateauroux

0.68

allows per match

Toulouse

0.82

Chateauroux

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toulouse+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulouse ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Toulouse or draw

86%

Toulouse or Chateauroux

79%

Draw or Chateauroux

35%

Winning margin

Toulouse wins by 2+

40%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Toulouse 1+ goals

86%

Toulouse 2+ goals

58%

Toulouse 3+ goals

30%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

53%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

17%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Toulouse (draw refunded)

83%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulouse at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulouse attack 2.54 + Chateauroux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.94

Chateauroux attack 0.68 + Toulouse defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Toulouse scores more

65%

level

21%

Chateauroux scores more

14%

Toulouse at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

T. Vargas

Chateauroux · D

8.3

Match Events

46'

M. Bangré← N. NGoumou

48'

52'

56'

58'

72'

B. Canelhas← L. Leroy

76'

J. Antiste← R. Healey

80'

S. Sanna← S. Moreira

84'

P. Keny← Opa Sanganté

89'

Baptiste Canelhas Reiffers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ToulouseChateauroux

Overview

37%Possession63%

25Total Shots12

5Corners10

24Fouls16

Shots

25Total Shots12

8On Target2

12Off Target8

5Blocked2

20Inside Box5

5Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

271Total Passes468

200Accurate Passes390

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

24Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1