Chateauroux 0–3 Toulouse: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Chateauroux

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Toulouse

C. Opéri 85' (OG)

R. Healey 65'

S. Spierings 37' (pen)

12/12/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Chateauroux27%

×Draw25%

Toulouse48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.54

Chateauroux

1.09

Toulouse

1.54

Toulouse creates 41% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 38 away

1.06

creates per match

1.50

1.57

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.06

Toulouse

1.50

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.57

Toulouse

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Toulouse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

52%

Chateauroux or Toulouse

75%

Draw or Toulouse

73%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

10%

Toulouse wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

66%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

30%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

10%

Toulouse 1+ goals

79%

Toulouse 2+ goals

45%

Toulouse 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

36%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + Toulouse defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Toulouse attack 1.50 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chateauroux scores more

27%

level

25%

Toulouse scores more

48%

Toulouse at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. van den Boomen

Toulouse · M

8.5

Match Events

18'

Deiver Machado

37'

S. SpieringsPenalty

42'

Yannick M'Bone

59'

A. Nouri← G. Sunu

65'

Ibrahim Cissé

65'

R. Healey↳ S. Moreira

66'

J. Antiste← A. Adli

70'

Nama Fofana

78'

A. Gonçalves← Y. Merdji

78'

L. Leroy← R. Grange

78'

P. Keny← I. Chouaref

83'

K. Koné← B. Dejaegere

85'

C. OpériOwn goal

87'

M. Diarra← S. Spierings

90'

Leo Leroy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxToulouse

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots19

6Corners8

19Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots19

5On Target9

7Off Target6

5Blocked4

8Inside Box14

9Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

338Total Passes483

243Accurate Passes391

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls15

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5