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Toulde vs Al Merreikh — Premier League 2020

Toulde
Toulde
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
3/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Toulde23%
×Draw29%
Al Merreikh47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toulde
0.78
Al Merreikh
1.25

Al Merreikh creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Toulde
0.69
Al Merreikh
1.07

allows per match

Toulde
1.44
Al Merreikh
0.87

finishing

Toulde+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulde ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Toulde or draw
53%
Toulde or Al Merreikh
71%
Draw or Al Merreikh
77%

Winning margin

Toulde wins by 2+
7%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Toulde 1+ goals
54%
Toulde 2+ goals
18%
Toulde 3+ goals
4%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
71%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
36%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Toulde (draw refunded)
33%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulde at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulde attack 0.69 + Al Merreikh defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Al Merreikh attack 1.07 + Toulde defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Toulde scores more
23%
level
29%
Al Merreikh scores more
47%

Al Merreikh at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toulde vs Al Merreikh

Al Merreikh beat Toulde 3-0 in Premier League on March 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.