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Al Merreikh vs Toulde — Premier League 2020

Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
FT
3 – 0
Toulde
Toulde
10/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Merreikh63%
×Draw23%
Toulde15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh
1.77
Toulde
0.71

Al Merreikh creates 149% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh
1.33
Toulde
0.43

allows per match

Al Merreikh
1.00
Toulde
2.21

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par
Toulde+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Toulde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw
85%
Al Merreikh or Toulde
77%
Draw or Toulde
37%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+
36%
Toulde wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals
83%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
53%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
26%
Toulde 1+ goals
51%
Toulde 2+ goals
16%
Toulde 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
81%
Toulde (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Toulde away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.33 + Toulde defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Toulde attack 0.43 + Al Merreikh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Merreikh scores more
63%
level
23%
Toulde scores more
15%

Al Merreikh at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Merreikh vs Toulde

Al Merreikh beat Toulde 3-0 in Premier League on October 26, 2024.