Tottenham 2–3 Wolves: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.06

Tottenham

1.59

Wolves

1.06

Tottenham creates 50% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 31 away

1.47

creates per match

0.82

1.30

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Wolves

1.72

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

75%

Tottenham or Wolves

75%

Draw or Wolves

50%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

26%

Wolves wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

80%

Tottenham 2+ goals

47%

Tottenham 3+ goals

21%

Wolves 1+ goals

65%

Wolves 2+ goals

29%

Wolves 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

66%

Wolves (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

Wolves attack 0.82 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tottenham scores more

50%

level

25%

Wolves scores more

25%

Tottenham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Diogo Jota

Wolves · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

27'

45'

57'

59'

71'

73'

R. Jiménez↳ Diogo Jota

74'

Pedro Neto← Adama Traoré

76'

T. Ndombèlé← J. Tanganga

79'

L. Dendoncker← Diogo Jota

82'

Gedson Fernandes← S. Aurier

84'

Ben Davies

84'

Harry Winks

90'

Leander Dendoncker

90+1'

T. Parrott← B. Davies

90+2'

Daniel Podence← R. Jiménez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamWolves

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots14

4Corners5

12Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target4

2Off Target7

6Blocked3

10Inside Box11

3Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

621Total Passes322

532Accurate Passes238

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

Premier League: Tottenham 2–3 Wolves

Wolves beat Tottenham 3-2 in Premier League on March 1, 2020.

Goals: S. Bergwijn (13'), M. Doherty (27'), S. Aurier (45'), Diogo Jota (57'), R. Jiménez (73').

Tottenham controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Tottenham 2–3 Wolves