Tottenham 3–1 West Ham: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

West Ham

Son Heung-Min 88', 24'

K. Zouma 9' (OG)

S. Benrahma 35'

3/20/2022

Premier League · Round 30Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Tottenham49%

×Draw24%

West Ham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.16

Tottenham

1.66

West Ham

1.16

Tottenham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 35 away

1.47

creates per match

1.06

1.26

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Tottenham

1.26

West Ham

1.85

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

73%

Tottenham or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

51%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

26%

West Ham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

81%

Tottenham 2+ goals

49%

Tottenham 3+ goals

23%

West Ham 1+ goals

69%

West Ham 2+ goals

32%

West Ham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

65%

West Ham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.66

West Ham attack 1.06 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tottenham scores more

49%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

27%

Tottenham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Son Heung-Min

Tottenham · F

8.6

Match Events

9'

K. ZoumaOwn goal

23'

Craig Dawson

24'

Son Heung-Min↳ H. Kane

35'

S. Benrahma↳ C. Dawson

56'

Pablo Fornals← A. Masuaku

56'

A. Yarmolenko← M. Antonio

84'

N. Vlašić← M. Lanzini

88'

Emerson← Reguilón

88'

Son Heung-Min↳ H. Kane

90+2'

Lucas Moura← Son Heung-Min

90+2'

S. Bergwijn← D. Kulusevski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamWest

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots6

5Corners3

7Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots6

4On Target1

8Off Target5

5Blocked0

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box0

Passing

53%Possession47%

604Total Passes544

546Accurate Passes483

90%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0