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Tottenham vs Swansea — Premier League 2026

Tottenham
Tottenham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
9/16/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Tottenham56%
×Draw23%
Swansea21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham
1.79
Swansea
1.00

Tottenham creates 79% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 74 away

creates per match

Tottenham
1.89
Swansea
0.93

allows per match

Tottenham
1.07
Swansea
1.69

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par
Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw
79%
Tottenham or Swansea
77%
Draw or Swansea
44%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+
32%
Swansea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals
83%
Tottenham 2+ goals
53%
Tottenham 3+ goals
26%
Swansea 1+ goals
63%
Swansea 2+ goals
26%
Swansea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)
73%
Swansea (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.07 · 198 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.89 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.79

Swansea attack 0.93 + Tottenham defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tottenham scores more
56%
level
23%
Swansea scores more
21%

Tottenham at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Ł. FabiańskiSwanseaSwansea · G
8.8

Match Events

58'
L. Fer← Renato Sanches
63'
Mike Van der Hoorn
63'
S. Aurier← M. Sissoko
72'
W. Bony← T. Abraham
74'
Llorente← Son Heung-Min
85'
W. Routledge← M. van der Hoorn
86'
Tom Carroll
88'
Toby Alderweireld
90'
Wayne Routledge

Possession

74%Tottenham

Shots

26Tottenham

Pass accuracy

58%Tottenham

Statistics

TottenhamSwansea
Overview
74%Possession26%
26Total Shots4
11Corners1
11Fouls9
Shots
26Total Shots4
8On Target0
14Off Target4
4Blocked0
10Inside Box2
16Outside Box2
Passing
74%Possession26%
757Total Passes257
674Accurate Passes164
89%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3

Premier League: Tottenham 0–0 Swansea

Tottenham and Swansea drew 0-0 in Premier League on September 16, 2017.

Tottenham controlled possession (74%) and registered 26 shots to 4.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.