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Swansea vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Swansea
Swansea
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tottenham
Tottenham
D. Alli 89'
Llorente 12'
1/2/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea33%
×Draw25%
Tottenham42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.30
Tottenham
1.50

Tottenham creates 15% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 202 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Tottenham
1.63

allows per match

Swansea
1.38
Tottenham
1.33

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par
Tottenham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Tottenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
58%
Swansea or Tottenham
75%
Draw or Tottenham
67%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
14%
Tottenham wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
73%
Swansea 2+ goals
37%
Swansea 3+ goals
14%
Tottenham 1+ goals
78%
Tottenham 2+ goals
44%
Tottenham 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
44%
Tottenham (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 202 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Tottenham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tottenham attack 1.63 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swansea scores more
33%
level
25%
Tottenham scores more
42%

Tottenham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
C. EriksenTottenhamTottenham · M
7.8

Match Events

10'
Martin Olsson
12'
Llorente↳ C. Eriksen
31'
Davinson Sánchez
53'
L. Narsingh← Àngel Rangel
59'
V. Wanyama← D. Sánchez
64'
Érik Lamela
68'
H. Kane← Llorente
70'
O. McBurnie← N. Dyer
77'
M. Sissoko← E. Lamela
78'
W. Routledge← T. Carroll
79'
Mike Van der Hoorn
89'
D. Alli

Possession

32%Swansea

Shots

8Swansea

Pass accuracy

46%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaTottenham
Overview
32%Possession68%
8Total Shots12
6Corners5
12Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots12
1On Target5
5Off Target5
2Blocked2
5Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
32%Possession68%
313Total Passes675
232Accurate Passes593
74%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Premier League: Swansea 0–2 Tottenham

Tottenham beat Swansea 2-0 in Premier League on January 2, 2018.

Goals: Llorente (12'), D. Alli (89').

Tottenham controlled possession (68%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.