Tottenham 2–2 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester United

Son Heung-Min 79'

Pedro Porro 56'

M. Rashford 44'

J. Sancho 7'

4/27/2023

Premier League · Round 33Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Tottenham41%

×Draw25%

Manchester United35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.39

Tottenham

1.52

Manchester United

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

1.47

creates per match

1.47

1.30

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Manchester United

1.47

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Manchester United

1.57

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Manchester United+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

65%

Tottenham or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

59%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

20%

Manchester United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

78%

Tottenham 2+ goals

45%

Tottenham 3+ goals

20%

Manchester United 1+ goals

75%

Manchester United 2+ goals

40%

Manchester United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

54%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Manchester United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Manchester United attack 1.47 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tottenham scores more

41%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

35%

Tottenham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Kane

Tottenham · F

8.3

Match Events

7'

J. Sancho↳ M. Rashford

41'

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

43'

Aaron Wan-Bissaka

44'

M. Rashford↳ Bruno Fernandes

56'

Pedro Porro

59'

Victor Lindelöf

61'

D. Kulusevski← Richarlison

61'

Fred← C. Eriksen

61'

A. Martial← J. Sancho

71'

W. Weghorst← Antony

71'

T. Malacia← A. Wan-Bissaka

77'

A. Danjuma← Pedro Porro

77'

B. Davies← I. Perišić

79'

Son Heung-Min↳ H. Kane

87'

J. Tanganga← Son Heung-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamManchester

Overview

40%Possession60%

18Total Shots17

2.48Expected Goals (xG)2.03

6Corners8

8Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots17

7On Target8

7Off Target5

4Blocked4

12Inside Box11

6Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

387Total Passes600

315Accurate Passes518

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3