Manchester United 2–0 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham

B. Fernandes 81'

B. Mbeumo 38'

2/7/2026

Premier League · Round 25Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Manchester United55%

×Draw22%

Tottenham23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.13

Manchester United

1.89

Tottenham

1.13

Manchester United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

2.15

creates per match

1.12

1.13

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Manchester United

2.15

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Manchester United

1.13

Tottenham

1.62

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.15scores less

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

77%

Manchester United or Tottenham

78%

Draw or Tottenham

45%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

32%

Tottenham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

85%

Manchester United 2+ goals

56%

Manchester United 3+ goals

29%

Tottenham 1+ goals

68%

Tottenham 2+ goals

31%

Tottenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

71%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.15 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.89

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Manchester United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manchester United scores more

55%

level

22%

Tottenham scores more

23%

Manchester United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Destiny Udogie

29'

Cristian Romero

32'

R. Dragusin← W. Odobert

38'

B. Mbeumo↳ K. Mainoo

45'

Amad Diallo

55'

Souza← D. Udogie

70'

João Palhinha

75'

B. Sesko← M. Cunha

80'

R. Kolo Muani← D. Solanke

80'

M. Tel← J. Palhinha

80'

Y. Bissouma← C. Gallagher

81'

B. Fernandes↳ D. Dalot

87'

N. Mazraoui← L. Shaw

87'

J. Zirkzee← B. Mbeumo

87'

M. Ugarte← Casemiro

90+2'

T. Fletcher← K. Mainoo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterTottenham

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots7

1.78Expected Goals (xG)0.49

7Corners0

12Fouls11

Shots

23Total Shots7

10On Target1

7Off Target1

6Blocked5

10Inside Box4

13Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

649Total Passes342

582Accurate Passes283

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

-0.51Goals Prevented-0.51

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1

Premier League: Manchester United 2–0 Tottenham

Manchester United beat Tottenham 2-0 in Premier League on February 7, 2026.

Goals: B. Mbeumo (38'), B. Fernandes (81').

Manchester United controlled possession (65%) and registered 23 shots to 7.

The match was played at Old Trafford in Manchester.

Manchester United vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Manchester United 2–0 Tottenham