Tottenham 2–0 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Manchester United

P. Jones 28' (OG)

C. Eriksen 1'

1/31/2018

Premier League · Round 25Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Tottenham40%

×Draw25%

Manchester United35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.35

Tottenham

1.48

Manchester United

1.35

Tottenham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 28 away

1.47

creates per match

1.44

1.26

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Manchester United

1.44

allows per match

Tottenham

1.26

Manchester United

1.50

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par

Manchester United+0.02on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

65%

Tottenham or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

60%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

19%

Manchester United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

77%

Tottenham 2+ goals

43%

Tottenham 3+ goals

19%

Manchester United 1+ goals

74%

Manchester United 2+ goals

39%

Manchester United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

54%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Manchester United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Manchester United attack 1.44 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tottenham scores more

40%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

35%

Tottenham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Eriksen

Tottenham · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

C. Eriksen

13'

Mousa Dembélé

28'

P. JonesOwn goal

38'

Phil Jones

63'

Mata← P. Pogba

63'

M. Fellaini← J. Lingard

70'

Ander Herrera← M. Fellaini

73'

Ashley Young

80'

E. Lamela← Son Heung-Min

85'

Dele Alli

88'

M. Sissoko← D. Alli

90+1'

V. Wanyama← M. Dembélé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamManchester

Overview

52%Possession48%

22Total Shots6

6Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots6

6On Target3

9Off Target2

7Blocked1

13Inside Box5

10Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

527Total Passes470

432Accurate Passes372

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides9