Tottenham 1–2 Fulham: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Fulham

M. Kudus 59'

H. Wilson 6'

K. Tete 4'

11/29/2025

Premier League · Round 13Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Tottenham45%

×Draw25%

Fulham30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.23

Tottenham

1.55

Fulham

1.23

Tottenham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

1.47

creates per match

1.15

1.30

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Fulham

1.15

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Fulham

1.63

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

70%

Tottenham or Fulham

75%

Draw or Fulham

55%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

22%

Fulham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

79%

Tottenham 2+ goals

46%

Tottenham 3+ goals

20%

Fulham 1+ goals

71%

Fulham 2+ goals

35%

Fulham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

60%

Fulham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Fulham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Fulham attack 1.15 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tottenham scores more

45%

level

25%

Fulham scores more

30%

Tottenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

K. Tete↳ S. Chukwueze

6'

H. Wilson↳ J. King

30'

Micky van de Ven

49'

Destiny Udogie

59'

M. Kudus↳ L. Bergvall

60'

R. Bentancur← J. Palhinha

60'

X. Simons← Richarlison

60'

W. Odobert← A. Gray

68'

S. Lukic← H. Wilson

68'

E. Smith Rowe← J. King

77'

P. M. Sarr← L. Bergvall

78'

Raúl Jiménez

81'

Kevin← S. Chukwueze

85'

M. Tel← D. Udogie

87'

T. Castagne← A. Iwobi

90+4'

Randal Kolo Muani

90+1'

Bernd Leno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamFulham

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots7

0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.45

8Corners2

11Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots7

2On Target3

6Off Target1

6Blocked3

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

507Total Passes320

439Accurate Passes241

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54

Discipline

11Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4