Fulham 2–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tottenham

A. Iwobi 34'

H. Wilson 7'

Richarlison 66'

3/1/2026

Premier League · Round 28Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Fulham43%

×Draw26%

Tottenham31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.16

Fulham

1.43

Tottenham

1.16

Fulham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.30

creates per match

1.12

1.20

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Fulham

1.30

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Fulham

1.20

Tottenham

1.55

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Fulham+0.26scores more

Tottenham+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

69%

Fulham or Tottenham

74%

Draw or Tottenham

57%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

21%

Tottenham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

76%

Fulham 2+ goals

42%

Fulham 3+ goals

17%

Tottenham 1+ goals

69%

Tottenham 2+ goals

32%

Tottenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

59%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 27 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.30 + Tottenham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Fulham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fulham scores more

43%

level

26%

Tottenham scores more

31%

Fulham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

H. Wilson

34'

A. Iwobi↳ H. Wilson

58'

M. Tel← R. Kolo Muani

58'

Richarlison← X. Simons

58'

P. M. Sarr← C. Gallagher

61'

64'

66'

66'

66'

72'

T. Cairney← E. Smith Rowe

72'

S. Chukwueze← H. Wilson

73'

Rodrigo Muniz← R. Jimenez

74'

J. King← O. Bobb

80'

90+2'

90+5'

90'

90'

K. Danso← R. Dragusin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamTottenham

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots13

2.28Expected Goals (xG)0.88

5Corners8

11Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots13

4On Target1

10Off Target5

4Blocked7

15Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

480Total Passes395

384Accurate Passes293

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-1.21Goals Prevented-1.21

Discipline

11Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Premier League: Fulham 2–1 Tottenham

Fulham beat Tottenham 2-1 in Premier League on March 1, 2026.

Goals: H. Wilson (7'), A. Iwobi (34'), Richarlison (66').

Fulham controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Craven Cottage in London.

Fulham vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Fulham 2–1 Tottenham