Tottenham 1–1 Fulham: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fulham

H. Kane 25'

Ivan Cavaleiro 74'

1/13/2021

Premier League · Round 16Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Tottenham45%

×Draw25%

Fulham30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Tottenham

1.54

Fulham

1.21

Tottenham creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

1.47

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Fulham

1.13

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Fulham

1.62

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

70%

Tottenham or Fulham

75%

Draw or Fulham

55%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

23%

Fulham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

79%

Tottenham 2+ goals

45%

Tottenham 3+ goals

20%

Fulham 1+ goals

70%

Fulham 2+ goals

34%

Fulham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

60%

Fulham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Fulham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fulham attack 1.13 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tottenham scores more

45%

level

25%

Fulham scores more

30%

Tottenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Reguilón

Tottenham · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

André Zambo Anguissa

25'

H. Kane↳ Reguilón

64'

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

67'

A. Lookman← K. Tete

74'

Ivan Cavaleiro↳ A. Lookman

75'

E. Lamela← H. Winks

81'

Carlos Vinícius← T. Ndombèlé

86'

A. Kamara← Ivan Cavaleiro

90'

Joachim Andersen

90+1'

J. Onomah← R. Loftus-Cheek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamFulham

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots15

6Corners5

13Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots15

6On Target4

6Off Target5

3Blocked6

10Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

522Total Passes467

427Accurate Passes376

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2