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Tottenham vs AC Milan — UEFA Champions League 2018

Tottenham
Tottenham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
3/8/2023UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Round of 16Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tottenham43%
×Draw26%
AC Milan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham
1.45
AC Milan
1.19

Tottenham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tottenham
1.90
AC Milan
1.20

allows per match

Tottenham
1.19
AC Milan
1.00

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par
AC Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw
69%
Tottenham or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
57%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+
21%
AC Milan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals
77%
Tottenham 2+ goals
42%
Tottenham 3+ goals
18%
AC Milan 1+ goals
70%
AC Milan 2+ goals
33%
AC Milan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)
58%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.90 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

AC Milan attack 1.20 + Tottenham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tottenham scores more
43%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
31%

Tottenham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tottenham vs AC Milan

Tottenham and AC Milan drew 0-0 in UEFA Champions League on March 8, 2023.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.