AC Milan 1–0 Tottenham: Result & Stats

AC Milan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham

2/14/2023

UEFA Champions League · Round of 16Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AC Milan46%

×Draw24%

Tottenham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.25

AC Milan

1.63

Tottenham

1.25

AC Milan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

1.40

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

AC Milan

1.40

Tottenham

1.50

allows per match

AC Milan

1.00

Tottenham

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par

Tottenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

71%

AC Milan or Tottenham

76%

Draw or Tottenham

54%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

24%

Tottenham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

80%

AC Milan 2+ goals

48%

AC Milan 3+ goals

22%

Tottenham 1+ goals

71%

Tottenham 2+ goals

36%

Tottenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

61%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.40 + Tottenham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tottenham attack 1.50 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AC Milan scores more

46%

level

24%

Tottenham scores more

29%

AC Milan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff