Tottenham Hotspur U18 2–1 Aston Villa U18

Tottenham Hotspur U18

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Aston Villa U18

L. Williams-Barnett 26'

G. Feeney 23'

M. Lott 65'

4/19/2025

League #696 · South - 17Tottenham Hotspur Academy Spurs Lodge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur U1847%

×Draw20%

Aston Villa U1833%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tottenham Hotspur U18Expected goals in this matchAston Villa U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.96

Tottenham Hotspur U18

2.35

Aston Villa U18

1.96

Tottenham Hotspur U18 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 58 away

2.33

creates per match

2.34

1.58

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur U18

2.33

Aston Villa U18

2.34

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur U18

1.58

Aston Villa U18

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur U18+0.00on par

Aston Villa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur U18 ↓

Aston Villa U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur U18 or draw

67%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 or Aston Villa U18

80%

Draw or Aston Villa U18

53%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur U18 wins by 2+

28%

Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur U18 1+ goals

90%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 2+ goals

68%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 3+ goals

41%

Aston Villa U18 1+ goals

86%

Aston Villa U18 2+ goals

58%

Aston Villa U18 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur U18 (draw refunded)

59%

Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur U18 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Aston Villa U18 away — creates 2.34, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur U18 attack 2.33 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.35

Aston Villa U18 attack 2.34 + Tottenham Hotspur U18 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tottenham Hotspur U18 scores more

47%

level

20%

Aston Villa U18 scores more

33%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Fortes

23'

G. Feeney↳ M. Adewole

26'

39'

45+3'

50'

55'

57'

63'

65'

69'

R. Elliot-Parris← E. Lehane

69'

D. Batty← G. Feeney

69'

T. Bloomfield← Rodrigo Fortes

77'

A. Lynskey

78'

A. McWilliams← A. Lynskey

89'

L. Williams-Barnett

90'

T. Tingey← M. Adewole

Tottenham

Aston

1

Asemota

3

▼

Fortes

5

Routh

9

⚽

2

4

8

6

▼

Jenner

11

A

McGrath

10

▼

7

1

4

5

2

3

8

▼

Moncur

9

▼

Lehane

10

⚽

Williams-

6

⚽

▼

Feeney

7

A

▼

Adewole

11

Thompson

Manager: S. Lewis

63'▲J. Beggs←▼R. Moncur

69'▲R. Elliot-Parris←▼E. Lehane

69'▲D. Batty←▼G. Feeney

90'▲T. Tingey←▼M. Adewole

Tottenham Hotspur U18 substitutes

14Beggs16Elliot-Parris15Batty12Tingey13Warren

Manager: J. Shan

55'▲M. Meade←▼M. Jenner

69'▲T. Bloomfield←▼Rodrigo Fortes

78'▲A. McWilliams←▼A. Lynskey

Aston Villa U18 substitutes

16Meade12Bloomfield14McWilliams13Allan15Wilson

League #696: Tottenham Hotspur U18 2–1 Aston Villa U18

Tottenham Hotspur U18 beat Aston Villa U18 2-1 in League #696 on April 19, 2025.

Goals: G. Feeney (23'), L. Williams-Barnett (26'), M. Lott (65').

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Academy Spurs Lodge in Chigwell, Essex.

Tottenham Hotspur U18 vs Aston Villa U18 — League #696 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #696: Tottenham Hotspur U18 2–1 Aston Villa U18