Aston Villa U18 2–0 Tottenham Hotspur U18

Aston Villa U18

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham Hotspur U18

B. Burrowes 80', 17'

9/14/2024

League #696 · South - 4Bodymoor Heath Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Aston Villa U1838%

×Draw21%

Tottenham Hotspur U1842%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston Villa U18Expected goals in this matchTottenham Hotspur U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.09

Aston Villa U18

1.98

Tottenham Hotspur U18

2.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 12 away

2.04

creates per match

2.17

2.02

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Aston Villa U18

2.04

Tottenham Hotspur U18

2.17

allows per match

Aston Villa U18

2.02

Tottenham Hotspur U18

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa U18+0.00on par

Tottenham Hotspur U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa U18 ↓

Tottenham Hotspur U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Aston Villa U18 or draw

58%

Aston Villa U18 or Tottenham Hotspur U18

79%

Draw or Tottenham Hotspur U18

62%

Winning margin

Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+

20%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Aston Villa U18 1+ goals

86%

Aston Villa U18 2+ goals

59%

Aston Villa U18 3+ goals

31%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 1+ goals

88%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 2+ goals

62%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)

47%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa U18 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 2.02 · 54 matches

Tottenham Hotspur U18 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa U18 attack 2.04 + Tottenham Hotspur U18 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.98

Tottenham Hotspur U18 attack 2.17 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aston Villa U18 scores more

38%

level

21%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 scores more

42%

Tottenham Hotspur U18 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

B. Burrowes↳ C. Brannigan

34'

36'

44'

60'

72'

78'

78'

R. Elliot-Parris← J. Beggs

80'

B. Burrowes↳ M. Cotcher

82'

M. Asante-Boakye← L. Routh

82'

V. Hayward← M. Cotcher

88'

R. Elliott-Parris

90'

J. McGrath← C. Brannigan

Aston

Tottenham

1

Archer

3

Logan

5

Hardy

4

▼

Byfield

6

▼

Beggs

9

Lehane

11

▼

10

8

2

7

1

5

▼

Routh

3

Bloomfiel

2

Burgess

9

▼

4

8

6

7

⚽2

Burrowes

10

A

▼

Cotcher

11

A

▼

Brannigan

Manager: J. Shan

72'▲J. Green←▼E. Briscoe

82'▲M. Asante-Boakye←▼L. Routh

82'▲V. Hayward←▼M. Cotcher

90'▲J. McGrath←▼C. Brannigan

Aston Villa U18 substitutes

15Green14Asante-Boakye16Hayward12McGrath13Allan

Manager: S. Lewis

60'▲R. Moncur←▼H. James

78'▲D. Orr←▼J. Byfield

78'▲R. Elliot-Parris←▼J. Beggs

Tottenham Hotspur U18 substitutes

15Moncur12Orr16Elliot-Parris13Warren14Bangura

League #696: Aston Villa U18 2–0 Tottenham Hotspur U18

Aston Villa U18 beat Tottenham Hotspur U18 2-0 in League #696 on September 14, 2024.

Goals: B. Burrowes (17', 80').

The match was played at Bodymoor Heath Training Ground in Bodymoor Heath, Warwickshire.

Aston Villa U18 vs Tottenham Hotspur U18 — League #696 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #696: Aston Villa U18 2–0 Tottenham Hotspur U18