TOŠK Tešanj 4–0 Stupčanica Olovo: Result & Stats

TOŠK Tešanj

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Stupčanica Olovo

4/19/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 22Stadion Šibovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj43%

×Draw28%

Stupčanica Olovo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOŠK TešanjExpected goals in this matchStupčanica Olovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.01

TOŠK Tešanj

1.31

Stupčanica Olovo

1.01

TOŠK Tešanj creates 30% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 57 away

1.61

creates per match

1.23

0.79

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj

1.61

Stupčanica Olovo

1.23

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj

0.79

Stupčanica Olovo

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw

71%

TOŠK Tešanj or Stupčanica Olovo

72%

Draw or Stupčanica Olovo

57%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

20%

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

73%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

38%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

14%

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals

64%

Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals

27%

Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

60%

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.79 · 95 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.61 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

43%

level

28%

Stupčanica Olovo scores more

29%

TOŠK Tešanj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff