Stupčanica Olovo 4–0 TOŠK Tešanj: Result & Stats

Stupčanica Olovo

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TOŠK Tešanj

3/30/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19Gradski stadion Olovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Stupčanica Olovo56%

×Draw23%

TOŠK Tešanj21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stupčanica OlovoExpected goals in this matchTOŠK Tešanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.03

Stupčanica Olovo

1.82

TOŠK Tešanj

1.03

Stupčanica Olovo creates 77% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 97 away

2.11

creates per match

1.21

0.86

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Stupčanica Olovo

2.11

TOŠK Tešanj

1.21

allows per match

Stupčanica Olovo

0.86

TOŠK Tešanj

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stupčanica Olovo ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stupčanica Olovo or draw

79%

Stupčanica Olovo or TOŠK Tešanj

77%

Draw or TOŠK Tešanj

44%

Winning margin

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+

32%

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals

84%

Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals

54%

Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals

27%

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

64%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

28%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)

72%

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stupčanica Olovo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stupčanica Olovo attack 2.11 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.82

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stupčanica Olovo scores more

56%

level

23%

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

21%

Stupčanica Olovo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stupčanica Olovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff