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TOŠK Tešanj vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
4 – 0
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
10/11/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj72%
×Draw18%
Slaven Živinice10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
2.19
Slaven Živinice
0.67

TOŠK Tešanj creates 227% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 23 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.59
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.77
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
90%
TOŠK Tešanj or Slaven Živinice
82%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
28%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
48%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
89%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
64%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
37%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
49%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
15%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
88%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.19

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
72%
level
18%
Slaven Živinice scores more
10%

TOŠK Tešanj at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: TOŠK Tešanj 4–0 Slaven Živinice

TOŠK Tešanj beat Slaven Živinice 4-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.