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Slaven Živinice vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
FT
1 – 3
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
5/8/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 25Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice29%
×Draw25%
TOŠK Tešanj46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaven Živinice
1.19
TOŠK Tešanj
1.56

TOŠK Tešanj creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

creates per match

Slaven Živinice
0.83
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Slaven Živinice
1.91
TOŠK Tešanj
1.54

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw
54%
Slaven Živinice or TOŠK Tešanj
75%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
71%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
12%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
70%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
33%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
12%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
79%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
46%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
39%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.19

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more
29%
level
25%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
46%

TOŠK Tešanj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Slaven Živinice 1–3 TOŠK Tešanj

TOŠK Tešanj beat Slaven Živinice 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Živinice.