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TOŠK Tešanj vs Radnički Lukavac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
8/25/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj63%
×Draw20%
Radnički Lukavac17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
2.08
Radnički Lukavac
0.98

TOŠK Tešanj creates 112% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.59
Radnički Lukavac
1.20

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.77
Radnički Lukavac
2.57

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Radnički Lukavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
83%
TOŠK Tešanj or Radnički Lukavac
80%
Draw or Radnički Lukavac
37%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
39%
Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
87%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
61%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
34%
Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
62%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
26%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
79%
Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.08

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
63%
level
20%
Radnički Lukavac scores more
17%

TOŠK Tešanj at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: TOŠK Tešanj 2–0 Radnički Lukavac

TOŠK Tešanj beat Radnički Lukavac 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.