Radnički Lukavac 3–1 TOŠK Tešanj: Result & Stats

Radnički Lukavac

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

TOŠK Tešanj

10/8/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Lukavac26%

×Draw24%

TOŠK Tešanj50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički LukavacExpected goals in this matchTOŠK Tešanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.70

Radnički Lukavac

1.15

TOŠK Tešanj

1.70

TOŠK Tešanj creates 48% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

0.75

creates per match

1.21

2.18

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac

0.75

TOŠK Tešanj

1.21

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac

2.18

TOŠK Tešanj

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw

50%

Radnički Lukavac or TOŠK Tešanj

76%

Draw or TOŠK Tešanj

74%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+

10%

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals

68%

Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals

32%

Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals

11%

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

82%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

51%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)

34%

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more

26%

level

24%

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

50%

TOŠK Tešanj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff