TOŠK Tešanj 0–0 Čelik: Result & Stats

TOŠK Tešanj

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Čelik

10/19/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj48%

×Draw27%

Čelik25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOŠK TešanjExpected goals in this matchČelik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.96

TOŠK Tešanj

1.43

Čelik

0.96

TOŠK Tešanj creates 49% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 42 away

1.61

creates per match

1.14

0.79

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj

1.61

Čelik

1.14

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj

0.79

Čelik

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Čelik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw

75%

TOŠK Tešanj or Čelik

73%

Draw or Čelik

52%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

23%

Čelik wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

76%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

42%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

17%

Čelik 1+ goals

62%

Čelik 2+ goals

25%

Čelik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

65%

Čelik (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.79 · 95 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.61 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Čelik attack 1.14 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

48%

level

27%

Čelik scores more

25%

TOŠK Tešanj at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

TOŠK

Čelik

Manager: A. Mrguda

Manager: N. Hukić