Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Čelik vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čelik
Čelik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
E. Sieh 64'
A. Masic 62'
5/10/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 22Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Čelik57%
×Draw23%
TOŠK Tešanj19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čelik
1.77
TOŠK Tešanj
0.92

Čelik creates 92% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 97 away

creates per match

Čelik
2.00
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Čelik
0.62
TOŠK Tešanj
1.53

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Čelik or draw
81%
Čelik or TOŠK Tešanj
77%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
43%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+
32%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals
83%
Čelik 2+ goals
53%
Čelik 3+ goals
26%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
60%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
23%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)
75%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Čelik scores more
57%
level
23%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
19%

Čelik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
A. Masic
64'
E. Sieh
Čelik
TOŠK
N. Hukić
Manager: N. Hukić
A. Mrguda
Manager: A. Mrguda

1st League - FBiH: Čelik 2–0 TOŠK Tešanj

Čelik beat TOŠK Tešanj 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 10, 2026.

Goals: A. Masic (62'), E. Sieh (64').

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.