TOŠK Tešanj 2–0 Budućnost Banovići: Result & Stats

TOŠK Tešanj

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Budućnost Banovići

3/10/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj55%

×Draw24%

Budućnost Banovići21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOŠK TešanjExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Banovići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.92

TOŠK Tešanj

1.66

Budućnost Banovići

0.92

TOŠK Tešanj creates 80% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

1.59

creates per match

1.07

0.77

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj

1.59

Budućnost Banovići

1.07

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj

0.77

Budućnost Banovići

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Budućnost Banovići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw

79%

TOŠK Tešanj or Budućnost Banovići

76%

Draw or Budućnost Banovići

45%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

30%

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

81%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

49%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

23%

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals

60%

Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals

23%

Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

72%

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

55%

level

24%

Budućnost Banovići scores more

21%

TOŠK Tešanj at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff