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Budućnost Banovići vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
5/3/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 24Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Budućnost Banovići50%
×Draw25%
TOŠK Tešanj25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Banovići
1.61
TOŠK Tešanj
1.06

Budućnost Banovići creates 52% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići
1.68
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići
0.92
TOŠK Tešanj
1.54

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw
75%
Budućnost Banovići or TOŠK Tešanj
75%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
50%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
26%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
80%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
48%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
22%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
65%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
29%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
67%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.68 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more
50%
level
25%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
25%

Budućnost Banovići at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Banovići vs TOŠK Tešanj

Budućnost Banovići and TOŠK Tešanj drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banovići.