TOŠK Tešanj 3–1 Bratstvo Gračanica: Result & Stats

TOŠK Tešanj

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bratstvo Gračanica

9/22/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj52%

×Draw26%

Bratstvo Gračanica21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOŠK TešanjExpected goals in this matchBratstvo Gračanica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.85

TOŠK Tešanj

1.50

Bratstvo Gračanica

0.85

TOŠK Tešanj creates 76% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 97 away

1.61

creates per match

0.91

0.79

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj

1.61

Bratstvo Gračanica

0.91

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj

0.79

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw

79%

TOŠK Tešanj or Bratstvo Gračanica

74%

Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica

48%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

27%

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

78%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

44%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

19%

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals

57%

Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals

21%

Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

71%

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.79 · 95 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.61 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.91 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

52%

level

26%

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more

21%

TOŠK Tešanj at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff