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Bratstvo Gračanica vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
H. Avdagic 28', 16'
K. Mujaric 11' (pen)
3/22/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica49%
×Draw24%
TOŠK Tešanj27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.68
TOŠK Tešanj
1.18

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 42% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.83
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.15
TOŠK Tešanj
1.53

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw
73%
Bratstvo Gračanica or TOŠK Tešanj
76%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
51%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
26%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
81%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
50%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
24%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
69%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
33%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
65%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 98 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.83 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
49%
level
24%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
27%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
K. MujaricPenalty
16'
H. Avdagic
28'
H. Avdagic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Bratstvo Gračanica 2–1 TOŠK Tešanj

Bratstvo Gračanica beat TOŠK Tešanj 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 22, 2026.

Goals: K. Mujaric (11' pen), H. Avdagic (16', 28').

The match was played at Gradski stadion Luke in Gračanica.