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Torvastad vs Staal Jørpeland — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Torvastad
Torvastad
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
10/18/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 25Torvastad Idrettssenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Torvastad41%
×Draw21%
Staal Jørpeland38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torvastad
1.97
Staal Jørpeland
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Torvastad
1.31
Staal Jørpeland
2.08

allows per match

Torvastad
1.69
Staal Jørpeland
2.62

finishing

Torvastad+0.00on par
Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torvastad ↓

Staal Jørpeland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Torvastad or draw
62%
Torvastad or Staal Jørpeland
79%
Draw or Staal Jørpeland
59%

Winning margin

Torvastad wins by 2+
22%
Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Torvastad 1+ goals
86%
Torvastad 2+ goals
58%
Torvastad 3+ goals
31%
Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
85%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
56%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Torvastad (draw refunded)
52%
Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torvastad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Staal Jørpeland away — creates 2.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torvastad attack 1.31 + Staal Jørpeland defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.97

Staal Jørpeland attack 2.08 + Torvastad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torvastad scores more
41%
level
21%
Staal Jørpeland scores more
38%

Torvastad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torvastad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Torvastad 2–3 Staal Jørpeland

Staal Jørpeland beat Torvastad 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Torvastad Idrettssenter in Torvastad.