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Staal Jørpeland vs Torvastad — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Torvastad
Torvastad
4/4/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 2Jørpeland stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Staal Jørpeland59%
×Draw17%
Torvastad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staal Jørpeland
3.04
Torvastad
1.96

Staal Jørpeland creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Staal Jørpeland
2.54
Torvastad
0.92

allows per match

Staal Jørpeland
3.00
Torvastad
3.54

finishing

Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par
Torvastad+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staal Jørpeland ↓

Torvastad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Staal Jørpeland or draw
76%
Staal Jørpeland or Torvastad
83%
Draw or Torvastad
41%

Winning margin

Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
40%
Torvastad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
95%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
80%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
57%
Torvastad 1+ goals
86%
Torvastad 2+ goals
58%
Torvastad 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
71%
Torvastad (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staal Jørpeland at home — creates 2.54, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Torvastad away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staal Jørpeland attack 2.54 + Torvastad defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.04

Torvastad attack 0.92 + Staal Jørpeland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Staal Jørpeland scores more
59%
level
17%
Torvastad scores more
24%

Staal Jørpeland at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Staal Jørpeland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Staal Jørpeland vs Torvastad

Staal Jørpeland and Torvastad drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Jørpeland stadion in Jørpeland.