Torslanda 3–1 Ariana: Result & Stats

Torslanda

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ariana

O. Ocampo Hägglund 66'

K. Dickson 61', 6'

A. Reinholdsson 74'

5/12/2024

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 8Torslandavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Torslanda45%

×Draw25%

Ariana30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorslandaExpected goals in this matchAriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.27

Torslanda

1.60

Ariana

1.27

Torslanda creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.57

creates per match

1.11

1.43

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Torslanda

1.57

Ariana

1.11

allows per match

Torslanda

1.43

Ariana

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torslanda+0.00on par

Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torslanda ↓

Ariana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Torslanda or draw

70%

Torslanda or Ariana

75%

Draw or Ariana

55%

Winning margin

Torslanda wins by 2+

23%

Ariana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Torslanda 1+ goals

80%

Torslanda 2+ goals

47%

Torslanda 3+ goals

22%

Ariana 1+ goals

72%

Ariana 2+ goals

36%

Ariana 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Torslanda (draw refunded)

60%

Ariana (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torslanda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torslanda attack 1.57 + Ariana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ariana attack 1.11 + Torslanda defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torslanda scores more

45%

level

25%

Ariana scores more

30%

Torslanda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torslanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

K. Dickson

22'

F. Påhlman← C. Axede

46'

O. Khalid← A. Reuterskiöld

57'

O. Ocampo Hägglund← L. Andersson

61'

K. Dickson

62'

D. Mesic← Brwa Nouri

66'

O. Ocampo Hägglund

67'

J. Brannefalk← U. Ibrahim

74'

A. Reinholdsson

79'

L. Mekic← E. Jansson Bäcklund

83'

G. Bunjaku← A. Sabriye

86'

O. Ocampo Hagglund

87'

E. Mehmed

90+1'

A. Blomqvist

Torslanda

Ariana

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: D. Edge

22'▲F. Påhlman←▼C. Axede

57'▲O. Ocampo Hägglund←▼L. Andersson

79'▲L. Mekic←▼E. Jansson Bäcklund

Torslanda substitutes

PåhlmanHägglundMekicSvenssonAbdiLangbergBjörkquist

Manager: F. Sahan

46'▲O. Khalid←▼A. Reuterskiöld

62'▲D. Mesic←▼Brwa Nouri

67'▲J. Brannefalk←▼U. Ibrahim

83'▲G. Bunjaku←▼A. Sabriye

Ariana substitutes

KhalidMesicBrannefalkBunjakuArnshedNilssonHabibi

Ettan - Södra: Torslanda 3–1 Ariana

Torslanda beat Ariana 3-1 in Ettan - Södra on May 12, 2024.

Goals: K. Dickson (6', 61'), O. Ocampo Hägglund (66'), A. Reinholdsson (74').

The match was played at Torslandavallen in Torslanda.

Torslanda vs Ariana — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Torslanda 3–1 Ariana