Ariana 1–2 Torslanda: Result & Stats

Ariana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Torslanda

L. Minter Wettergren 10'

K. Dickson 54'

H. Davidsson 22'

9/7/2024

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 21Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ariana51%

×Draw24%

Torslanda25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArianaExpected goals in this matchTorslanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.15

Ariana

1.75

Torslanda

1.15

Ariana creates 52% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.80

creates per match

1.10

1.20

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Ariana

1.80

Torslanda

1.10

allows per match

Ariana

1.20

Torslanda

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par

Torslanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Torslanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ariana or draw

75%

Ariana or Torslanda

76%

Draw or Torslanda

49%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+

28%

Torslanda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals

83%

Ariana 2+ goals

52%

Ariana 3+ goals

25%

Torslanda 1+ goals

68%

Torslanda 2+ goals

32%

Torslanda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)

67%

Torslanda (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

Torslanda away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.80 + Torslanda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.75

Torslanda attack 1.10 + Ariana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ariana scores more

51%

level

24%

Torslanda scores more

25%

Ariana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

22'

30'

54'

60'

62'

C. Axede← L. Eknander

65'

S. Zekovic← A. Reuterskiöld

66'

U. Ibrahim← O. Khalid

68'

W. Alder← S. Bright

79'

G. Bunjaku← U. Ibrahim

79'

Umar Amadi← L. Minter Wettergren

79'

A. Andersson← E. Jansson Bäcklund

79'

O. Ocampo Hägglund← L. Mekic

87'

F. Dahlberg← A. Sabriye

90+4'

O. Parker-Price

90+5'

J. Brannefalk

Ariana

Torslanda

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Aras

65'▲S. Zekovic←▼A. Reuterskiöld

66'▲U. Ibrahim←▼O. Khalid

79'▲G. Bunjaku←▼U. Ibrahim

79'▲Umar Amadi←▼L. Minter Wettergren

87'▲F. Dahlberg←▼A. Sabriye

Ariana substitutes

ZekovicIbrahimBunjakuAmadiDahlbergIngemarsonEgly

Manager: D. Edge

62'▲C. Axede←▼L. Eknander

68'▲W. Alder←▼S. Bright

79'▲A. Andersson←▼E. Jansson Bäcklund

79'▲O. Ocampo Hägglund←▼L. Mekic

Torslanda substitutes

AxedeAlderAnderssonHägglundBjörkquistBlessnerNöller