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Torrijos vs Marchamalo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Torrijos
Torrijos
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Marchamalo
Marchamalo
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 32Estadio San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Torrijos45%
×Draw28%
Marchamalo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrijos
1.31
Marchamalo
0.95

Torrijos creates 38% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 79 away

creates per match

Torrijos
1.34
Marchamalo
1.03

allows per match

Torrijos
0.86
Marchamalo
1.29

finishing

Torrijos+0.00on par
Marchamalo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrijos ↓

Marchamalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torrijos or draw
73%
Torrijos or Marchamalo
72%
Draw or Marchamalo
55%

Winning margin

Torrijos wins by 2+
21%
Marchamalo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torrijos 1+ goals
73%
Torrijos 2+ goals
38%
Torrijos 3+ goals
14%
Marchamalo 1+ goals
61%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
25%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torrijos (draw refunded)
62%
Marchamalo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrijos at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 77 matches

Marchamalo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrijos attack 1.34 + Marchamalo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Marchamalo attack 1.03 + Torrijos defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torrijos scores more
45%
level
28%
Marchamalo scores more
27%

Torrijos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torrijos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Torrijos 0–3 Marchamalo

Marchamalo beat Torrijos 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco in Torrijos.