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Marchamalo vs Torrijos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Marchamalo
Marchamalo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torrijos
Torrijos
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 10Estadio La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Marchamalo44%
×Draw28%
Torrijos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marchamalo
1.33
Torrijos
0.99

Marchamalo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 74 away

creates per match

Marchamalo
1.30
Torrijos
0.92

allows per match

Marchamalo
1.05
Torrijos
1.36

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par
Torrijos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

Torrijos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw
72%
Marchamalo or Torrijos
72%
Draw or Torrijos
56%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+
21%
Torrijos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals
74%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
38%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
15%
Torrijos 1+ goals
63%
Torrijos 2+ goals
26%
Torrijos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)
61%
Torrijos (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Torrijos away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + Torrijos defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Torrijos attack 0.92 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marchamalo scores more
44%
level
28%
Torrijos scores more
28%

Marchamalo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Marchamalo 1–1 Torrijos

Marchamalo and Torrijos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Solana in Marchamalo.