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Torres vs Aprilia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Torres
Torres
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aprilia
Aprilia
12/12/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 14Stadio Vanni Sanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Torres51%
×Draw25%
Aprilia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torres
1.56
Aprilia
0.97

Torres creates 61% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Torres
1.81
Aprilia
1.09

allows per match

Torres
0.84
Aprilia
1.30

finishing

Torres+0.00on par
Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torres ↓

Aprilia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torres or draw
76%
Torres or Aprilia
75%
Draw or Aprilia
49%

Winning margin

Torres wins by 2+
26%
Aprilia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torres 1+ goals
79%
Torres 2+ goals
46%
Torres 3+ goals
21%
Aprilia 1+ goals
62%
Aprilia 2+ goals
25%
Aprilia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torres (draw refunded)
68%
Aprilia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torres at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torres attack 1.81 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Torres defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torres scores more
51%
level
25%
Aprilia scores more
24%

Torres at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torres vs Aprilia

Torres beat Aprilia 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Vanni Sanna in Sassari.