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Aprilia vs Torres — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Aprilia
Aprilia
FT
1 – 3
Torres
Torres
12/15/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 16Stadio Quinto Ricci (Aprilia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Aprilia25%
×Draw28%
Torres46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aprilia
0.88
Torres
1.30

Torres creates 48% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 29 away

creates per match

Aprilia
1.17
Torres
1.41

allows per match

Aprilia
1.19
Torres
0.59

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par
Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw
54%
Aprilia or Torres
72%
Draw or Torres
75%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+
8%
Torres wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals
59%
Aprilia 2+ goals
22%
Aprilia 3+ goals
6%
Torres 1+ goals
73%
Torres 2+ goals
37%
Torres 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)
35%
Torres (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Torres away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + Torres defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.88

Torres attack 1.41 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aprilia scores more
25%
level
28%
Torres scores more
46%

Torres at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Aprilia 1–3 Torres

Torres beat Aprilia 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Quinto Ricci (Aprilia).