Torreperogil 0–0 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Torreperogil

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Jaén

5/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Torreperogil36%

×Draw30%

Real Jaén33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreperogilExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.00

Torreperogil

1.06

Real Jaén

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

1.08

creates per match

1.15

0.85

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Torreperogil

1.08

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Torreperogil

0.85

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Real Jaén →

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw

67%

Torreperogil or Real Jaén

70%

Draw or Real Jaén

64%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+

14%

Real Jaén wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals

65%

Torreperogil 2+ goals

29%

Torreperogil 3+ goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

63%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

26%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)

52%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Torreperogil scores more

36%

level

30%

Real Jaén scores more

33%

Torreperogil at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Carlos Sánchez← Luis Rodríguez

62'

Pedro Fernández← Espín

62'

Sergio Rodríguez← Pablo de Castro

67'

Balle← David Ordoñez

76'

Fernando Rodríguez← Carlos Fernández

81'

Iván Peinado← Manu Avilés

81'

Iván Henares← Mario Ballesteros

Torreperogil

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Chus Hevia

62'▲Carlos Sánchez←▼Luis Rodríguez

67'▲Balle←▼David Ordoñez

81'▲Iván Peinado←▼Manu Avilés

81'▲Iván Henares←▼Mario Ballesteros

Torreperogil substitutes

SánchezBallePeinadoHenares

Manager: Manolo Herrero

62'▲Pedro Fernández←▼Espín

62'▲Sergio Rodríguez←▼Pablo de Castro

76'▲Fernando Rodríguez←▼Carlos Fernández

Real Jaén substitutes

FernándezRodríguezRodríguez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torreperogil 0–0 Real Jaén

Torreperogil and Real Jaén drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.

Torreperogil vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torreperogil 0–0 Real Jaén