Real Jaén 1–0 Torreperogil: Result & Stats

Real Jaén

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torreperogil

Juanma 45+2'

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 24Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Real Jaén61%

×Draw22%

Torreperogil17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real JaénExpected goals in this matchTorreperogil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.84

Real Jaén

1.83

Torreperogil

0.84

Real Jaén creates 118% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 109 away

2.12

creates per match

0.87

0.82

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Real Jaén

2.12

Torreperogil

0.87

allows per match

Real Jaén

0.82

Torreperogil

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Torreperogil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Torreperogil →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw

83%

Real Jaén or Torreperogil

78%

Draw or Torreperogil

39%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+

35%

Torreperogil wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

84%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

54%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

28%

Torreperogil 1+ goals

57%

Torreperogil 2+ goals

21%

Torreperogil 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

78%

Torreperogil (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Torreperogil away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Torreperogil defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.83

Torreperogil attack 0.87 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Jaén scores more

61%

level

22%

Torreperogil scores more

17%

Real Jaén at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

Juanma

57'

Pablo Ortíz← Manu Avilés

57'

Mario Ordoñez← Curro Burgos

62'

Juanpe← Joselillo

67'

Mauro Cabello← Fernando Rodríguez

74'

Iván Henares← Tomás

80'

Luis Rodríguez← Antonio Romero

82'

Migue García← Adri Paz

82'

Álvaro Muñiz← Juanma

Real

Torreperogil

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Emilio Fajardo

62'▲Juanpe←▼Joselillo

67'▲Mauro Cabello←▼Fernando Rodríguez

82'▲Migue García←▼Adri Paz

82'▲Álvaro Muñiz←▼Juanma

Real Jaén substitutes

JuanpeCabelloGarcíaMuñiz

Manager: Valenciano

57'▲Pablo Ortíz←▼Manu Avilés

57'▲Mario Ordoñez←▼Curro Burgos

74'▲Iván Henares←▼Tomás

80'▲Luis Rodríguez←▼Antonio Romero

Torreperogil substitutes

OrtízOrdoñezHenaresRodríguez